Many farmers hesitate to adopt new management strategies with actual or perceived risks and uncertainties. Especially in ornamental plant production, farmers often stick to current production strategies to avoid the risk of economically harmful plant losses, even though they may recognize the need to optimize farm management. This work focused on the economically important and little-researched production system of ornamental heather (Calluna vulgaris) to help farmers find appropriate measures to sustainably improve resource use, plant quality, and profitability despite existing risks. Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis was applied to simulate alternative disease monitoring strategies. The outcomes for more intensive visual monitoring, as well as sensor-based monitoring using hyperspectral imaging were simulated. Based on the results of the probabilistic cost-benefit analysis, the expected utility of the alternative strategies was assessed as a function of the farmer’s level of risk aversion. The analysis of expected utility indicated that heather production is generally risky. Concerning the alternative strategies, more intensive visual monitoring provides the highest utility for farmers for almost all levels of risk aversion compared to all other strategies. Results of the probabilistic cost-benefit analysis indicated that more intensive visual monitoring increases net benefits in 68% of the simulated cases. The application of sensor-based monitoring leads to negative economic outcomes in 85% of the simulated cases. This research approach is widely applicable to predict the impacts of new management strategies in precision agriculture. The methodology can be used to provide farmers in other data-scarce production systems with concrete recommendations that account for uncertainties and risks.

许多农民不愿采用具有实际或感知风险和不确定性的新管理策略。特别是在观赏植物生产中，农民经常坚持当前的生产策略以避免经济上有害的植物损失风险，即使他们可能认识到优化农场管理的必要性。这项工作的重点是观赏石南花 ( Calluna vulgaris ) 的经济上重要且研究较少的生产系统。) 帮助农民找到适当的措施，在存在风险的情况下可持续地提高资源利用、植物质量和盈利能力。应用概率成本效益分析来模拟替代疾病监测策略。模拟了更密集的视觉监测以及使用高光谱成像的基于传感器的监测的结果。基于概率成本效益分析的结果，替代策略的预期效用被评估为农民风险规避水平的函数。预期效用分析表明，石南花生产通常具有风险。关于替代策略，与所有其他策略相比，更密集的视觉监测为农民提供了几乎所有级别的风险规避的最高效用。概率成本收益分析的结果表明，在 68% 的模拟案例中，更密集的视觉监控会增加净收益。在 85% 的模拟案例中，基于传感器的监测的应用会导致负面的经济结果。这种研究方法广泛适用于预测新管理策略对精准农业的影响。该方法可用于为其他数据稀缺生产系统中的农民提供具体建议，以解决不确定性和风险。这种研究方法广泛适用于预测新管理策略对精准农业的影响。该方法可用于为其他数据稀缺生产系统中的农民提供具体建议，以解决不确定性和风险。这种研究方法广泛适用于预测新管理策略对精准农业的影响。该方法可用于为其他数据稀缺生产系统中的农民提供具体建议，以解决不确定性和风险。