Existing work seeks explanations for state repression mainly in domestic factors such as ethnic/religious cleavages, poverty and inequality, struggle for power, regime type and quality of state institutions, lack of loyalty, demand for scapegoats, and cultural or psychological traits of perpetrators. How foreign influences shape state repression has been given less attention. Furthermore, the focus of the empirical literature has been largely cross-country, leaving much local variation unexplained. In this article, I examine how far foreign interests can explain the local (spatial) variation of deportations and massacres during the Armenian genocide. Between 1915 and 1917 the Ottoman Empire carried out a massive campaign of state repression (deportations and massacres) against its Armenian population. There was meaningful variation across Ottoman provinces in the intensity of this campaign, that is, some provinces experienced more repression than others. I investigate the determinants of this spatial variation. My empirical analysis is guided by a rationalist (economic) model where deportation is a tool to stifle Armenian calls for independence, but the benefit and cost of deportation vary spatially. For example, deportation is costlier (i.e. the risk of foreign intervention is greater) in locations where foreign economic and military interests are threatened by the departure of Armenians. In line with the model’s predictions, my empirical analysis indicates that there were fewer deportations in places where Armenians worked for the German-owned railway.

中文翻译：

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外国利益和国家镇压：来自亚美尼亚种族灭绝的理论和证据

现有的工作主要从民族/宗教分裂、贫困和不平等、权力斗争、政权类型和国家机构质量、缺乏忠诚度、对替罪羊的需求以及肇事者的文化或心理特征等国内因素中寻求对国家镇压的解释。多么外国影响形状状态抑制的关注较少。此外，实证文献的重点主要是跨国的，许多地方差异无法解释。在本文中，我研究了外国利益在多大程度上可以解释亚美尼亚种族灭绝期间驱逐和屠杀的当地（空间）变化。1915 年至 1917 年间，奥斯曼帝国对其亚美尼亚人进行了大规模的国家镇压（驱逐和屠杀）。这场运动的强度在奥斯曼各省之间存在显着差异，也就是说，一些省份比其他省份经历了更多的镇压。我研究了这种空间变化的决定因素。我的实证分析以理性主义（经济）模型为指导，其中驱逐是扼杀亚美尼亚人要求独立的工具，但驱逐出境的好处和成本因空间而异。例如，在外国经济和军事利益因亚美尼亚人离开而受到威胁的地方，驱逐的成本更高（即外国干预的风险更大）。根据模型的预测，我的实证分析表明，在亚美尼亚人为德资铁路工作的地方驱逐出境的人数较少。