Abstract

Under the Paris Agreement, Parties must track the implementation and achievement of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). In many cases, NDC targets are expressed as a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions level and their implementation and achievement is tracked through national GHG inventories. To achieve their targets, it is thus essential for countries that the effects of mitigation measures are visible in their inventories. Inventory visibility is understood as the degree to which a change in GHG emissions or removals resulting from mitigation actions is reflected in GHG inventories. Inventory visibility can be assessed by identifying which emission sources and gases are affected by a mitigation action, determining the minimum inventory methods required for reflecting the related emission reduction, and identifying the completeness of and methods used by the current GHG inventory. In addition, it is useful to identify potential differences with the quantification approaches used under carbon market mechanisms. Inventory visibility is found to be generally high for measures that reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion, while in parts of the industrial processes sector and in the forestry sector there is a higher risk that emission reductions are not visible. An analysis of the portfolio of Clean Development Mechanism projects shows that for most projects this risk is low; only 8% of the carbon credit supply potential is assessed to have a medium risk and 5% is assessed to have a high risk. However, as future carbon market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement may need to tap more into project types with medium to higher risk of non-visibility, national GHG inventory systems may need to be strengthened to assure visibility of mitigation projects.

摘要

根据《巴黎协定》，缔约方必须跟踪其国家自主贡献 (NDC) 的实施和成就。在许多情况下，NDC 目标表示为温室气体 (GHG) 排放水平，并通过国家温室气体清单跟踪其实施和实现。因此，为实现其目标，各国必须在其清单中看到缓解措施的效果。清单可见性被理解为减缓行动导致的温室气体排放量或清除量变化反映在温室气体清单中的程度。清单可见性可以通过确定哪些排放源和气体受到缓解行动的影响来评估，确定反映相关减排所需的最低清单方法，确定当前温室气体清单的完整性和使用的方法。此外，确定与碳市场机制下使用的量化方法的潜在差异是有用的。对于减少二氧化碳的措施，库存可见度普遍较高₂化石燃料燃烧产生的排放，而在部分工业加工部门和林业部门，减排不可见的风险较高。对清洁发展机制项目组合的分析表明，对于大多数项目来说，这种风险很低；只有 8% 的碳信用供应潜力被评估为中等风险，5% 被评估为高风险。然而，由于《巴黎协定》第 6 条下的未来碳市场机制可能需要更多地利用具有中高不可见风险的项目类型，因此可能需要加强国家温室气体清单系统以确保缓解项目的可见性。