Exposure to cold indoor temperature (< 18 degrees Celsius) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and has been identified by the WHO as a source of unhealthy housing. While warming homes has the potential to reduce CVD risk, the reduction in disease burden is not known. We simulated the population health gains from reduced CVD burden if the temperature in all Australian cold homes was permanently raised from their assumed average temperature of 16 degrees Celsius to 20 degrees Celsius. The health effect of eradicating cold housing through reductions in CVD was simulated using proportional multistate lifetable model. The model sourced CVD burden and epidemiological data from Australian and Global Burden of Disease studies. The prevalence of cold housing in Australia was estimated from the Australian Housing Conditions Survey. The effect of cold indoor temperature on blood pressure (and in turn stroke and coronary heart disease) was estimated from published research. Eradication of exposure to indoor cold could achieve a gain of undiscounted one and a half weeks of additional health life per person alive in 2016 (base-year) in cold housing through CVD alone. This equates to 0.447 (uncertainty interval: 0.064, 1.34; 3% discount rate) HALYs per 1,000 persons over remainder of their lives through CVD reduction. Eight percent of the total health gains are achievable between 2016 and 2035. Although seemingly modest, the gains outperform currently recommended CVD interventions including persistent dietary advice for adults 5–9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.017 per 1000 people, UI: 0.01, 0.027) and persistent lifestyle program for adults 5–9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.024, UI: 0.01, 0.027). Cardiovascular health gains alone achievable through eradication of cold housing are comparable with real-life lifestyle and dietary interventions. The potential health gains are even greater given cold housing eradication will also improve respiratory and mental health in addition to cardiovascular disease.

中文翻译：

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估计消除澳大利亚室内寒冷对心血管健康的益处

暴露于寒冷的室内温度（< 18 摄氏度）会增加心血管疾病（CVD）的风险，并已被世界卫生组织确定为不健康住房的来源。虽然温暖的家有可能降低心血管疾病的风险，但疾病负担的减轻尚不清楚。如果所有澳大利亚寒冷房屋的温度从假设的平均温度 16 摄氏度永久升高到 20 摄氏度，我们模拟了减少 CVD 负担对人口健康的益处。使用比例多态生命表模型模拟了通过减少 CVD 来消除冷屋对健康的影响。该模型来源于澳大利亚和全球疾病负担研究的 CVD 负担和流行病学数据。根据澳大利亚住房条件调查估计了澳大利亚冷屋的流行率。从已发表的研究中估计了寒冷的室内温度对血压（进而中风和冠心病）的影响。2016 年（基准年），仅通过 CVD，消除室内寒冷的暴露就可以使每人在冷屋中的健康寿命延长一周半。这相当于每 1,000 人在其余生中通过减少 CVD 获得 0.447（不确定性区间：0.064, 1.34；3% 贴现率）HALY。8% 的总健康收益可在 2016 年至 2035 年期间实现。虽然看似适度，但收益优于目前推荐的 CVD 干预措施，包括对 5-9% 5 年 CVD 风险的成年人的持续饮食建议（每 1000 人 0.017，UI：0.01, 0.027 ) 和针对成人的持续生活方式计划 5-9% 的 5 年 CVD 风险 (0.024, UI: 0.01, 0.027)。仅通过消除寒冷住房就可实现的心血管健康收益可与现实生活中的生活方式和饮食干预相媲美。鉴于除心血管疾病外，根除冷屋还将改善呼吸和心理健康，因此潜在的健康收益更大。