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Implications for ozone control by understanding the survivor bias in observed ozone-volatile organic compounds system
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 8.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-13 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-022-00261-7
Zhenyu Wang , Zongbo Shi , Feng Wang , Weiqing Liang , Guoliang Shi , Weichao Wang , Da Chen , Danni Liang , Yinchang Feng , Armistead G. Russell

Tropospheric ozone (O3) affects Earth’s climate and human health. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), major contributors to O3 formation, are of particular interest. Generally, the measured concentrations of VOCs (M-VOCs) and O3 show nonlinear or even opposite time serial-trend. We attributed the phenomenon to survivor bias: lack of insight of the photochemically consumed VOCs (C-VOCs) which emitted from sources to ambient and devote to forming O3, while excessive concern on the measured VOCs (M-VOCs) at observation site. Both observational and model results provide evidence that C-VOCs are the key to O3 formation. We proposed an improved model to quantify the source contributions of C-VOCs (biogenic emissions, gasoline evaporation, industry, etc.) and their impacts on the formation of O3, successfully avoiding the misidentification of dominant VOCs sources originated from the survivor bias in observational data. The survivor bias found in this study highlights that focusing of M-VOCs directly is insufficient and demonstrates the necessity of capture the sources of C-VOCs which contribute to O3 formation.



中文翻译:

通过了解观察到的臭氧挥发性有机化合物系统中的幸存者偏差对臭氧控制的影响

对流层臭氧(O 3)影响地球气候和人类健康。挥发性有机化合物 (VOC) 是 O 3形成的主要贡献者,特别令人感兴趣。一般来说,VOCs(M-VOCs)和O 3的实测浓度呈现非线性甚至相反的时间序列趋势。我们将此现象归因于幸存者偏差:对从源排放到环境并致力于形成O 3的光化学消耗的VOCs (C-VOCs)缺乏洞察力,而过度关注观测现场测量的VOCs (M-VOCs)。观测和模型结果都证明 C-VOC 是 O 3的关键形成。我们提出了一个改进的模型来量化 C-VOCs 的来源贡献(生物排放、汽油蒸发、工业等)及其对 O 3形成的影响,成功地避免了由于幸存者偏差导致的主要 VOCs 来源的错误识别。观测数据。本研究中发现的幸存者偏差强调了直接聚焦 M-VOC 是不够的,并证明了捕获有助于 O 3形成的 C-VOC 来源的必要性。

更新日期:2022-05-14
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