Over the last 30 years, olive farming has experienced a fast and large-scale intensification process across its Mediterranean range, that is reshaping Mediterranean farmland landscapes with associated impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study aims to analyze irrigated olive grove spatial expansion patterns across a 27–year period in a region of Southern Portugal, by exploring its drivers, describing the involved land-use dynamics, and to evaluating its potential biodiversity impacts. Land cover spatio-temporal dynamics were characterized by comparing recent land cover maps 2017 with those before the intensification upsurge (1990), using a grid of sampling points across the area. To investigate the drivers of intensification, these points were characterized using 10 variables reflecting policy context, previous land use (in 1990), biophysical features, and farm structure, which were used to model land cover transitions resulting in intensive olive farming. Finally, we used a counterfactual approach to assess the impacts of the olive intensification process on biodiversity in relation to alternative land cover change pathways, using farmland birds as an indicator group. We confirmed a large-scale expansion of irrigated olive groves in the region between 1990 and 2017, from being practically absent to covering ca. 6% of the study area. This expansion was made mostly at the expenses of open rainfed annual crops (63%) and, to a lesser degree, traditional rainfed olive groves (21%). Change was driven mainly by the combined effect of the availability of public irrigation water and large farms, although other factors related to legal constraints to land-use change, biophysical context and previous land management were also involved. During the study period, land cover transitions conducting to intensive olive farming were the most harmful for biodiversity, when compared to alternative land cover change pathways. By providing a quantitative insight into the underlying mechanisms and environmental consequences of the olive farming intensification process currently affecting biodiversity-rich Mediterranean farmland landscapes, our study contributes with valuable information that can be used by policy makers to better plan and manage the on-going expansion of intensive olive farming.

在过去的 30 年中，橄榄种植在其整个地中海范围内经历了快速而大规模的集约化过程，这正在重塑地中海农田景观，并对生物多样性和生态系统服务产生相关影响。本研究旨在通过探索其驱动因素、描述所涉及的土地利用动态以及评估其潜在的生物多样性影响，分析 27 年期间葡萄牙南部地区灌溉橄榄林的空间扩张模式。土地覆盖时空动态的特征是使用整个地区的采样点网格将 2017 年最近的土地覆盖图与集约化热潮（1990 年）之前的土地覆盖图进行比较。为了调查集约化的驱动因素，这些点使用 10 个反映政策背景、以前的土地利用（1990 年）、生物物理特征和农场结构，用于模拟导致集约化橄榄种植的土地覆盖转变。最后，我们使用反事实方法来评估橄榄集约化过程对与替代土地覆盖变化途径相关的生物多样性的影响，使用农田鸟类作为指标组。我们证实了 1990 年至 2017 年间该地区灌溉橄榄树的大规模扩张，从几乎不存在到覆盖约 20 年。研究面积的 6%。这种扩张主要是以开放的雨养一年生作物（63%）为代价的，而在较小程度上，传统的雨养橄榄林（21%）也是如此。变化主要是由公共灌溉用水和大型农场的综合影响推动的，尽管其他因素与土地利用变化的法律限制有关，还涉及生物物理背景和以前的土地管理。在研究期间，与其他土地覆盖变化途径相比，进行集约化橄榄种植的土地覆盖过渡对生物多样性的危害最大。通过提供对目前影响生物多样性丰富的地中海农田景观的橄榄种植集约化过程的潜在机制和环境后果的定量洞察，我们的研究提供了有价值的信息，决策者可以利用这些信息更好地规划和管理正在进行的扩张集约化橄榄种植。与其他土地覆盖变化路径相比。通过提供对目前影响生物多样性丰富的地中海农田景观的橄榄种植集约化过程的潜在机制和环境后果的定量洞察，我们的研究提供了有价值的信息，决策者可以利用这些信息更好地规划和管理正在进行的扩张集约化橄榄种植。与其他土地覆盖变化路径相比。通过提供对目前影响生物多样性丰富的地中海农田景观的橄榄种植集约化过程的潜在机制和环境后果的定量洞察，我们的研究提供了有价值的信息，决策者可以利用这些信息更好地规划和管理正在进行的扩张集约化橄榄种植。