ABSTRACT

Using data from the World Uncertainty, the World Trade Uncertainty, and the World Pandemic Uncertainty indices for 142 countries, this paper introduces three new indicators for measuring Turkey’s export markets’ uncertainty from 1996Q1 to 2021Q3. The indicators measure uncertainty in Turkey’s export destinations. After introducing three indicators of uncertainty for export markets, we investigate their effects on economic performance. It is found that all uncertainty indicators are negatively related to economic growth. Specifically, an increase in export destinations’ uncertainty leads to a slower growth rate of two quarters. Pandemic-induced uncertainty also negatively affects economic growth. The implications for the role of risks and uncertainties, such as financial, geopolitical, and political risks, are also discussed.

摘要

本文使用来自 142 个国家的世界不确定性、世界贸易不确定性和世界大流行不确定性指数的数据，引入了三个新指标来衡量土耳其 1996 年第一季度至 2021 年第三季度出口市场的不确定性。该指标衡量土耳其出口目的地的不确定性。在介绍了出口市场的三个不确定性指标之后，我们研究了它们对经济表现的影响。发现所有不确定性指标都与经济增长负相关。具体而言，出口目的地不确定性增加导致增速放缓两个季度。大流行引起的不确定性也对经济增长产生负面影响。还讨论了对风险和不确定性作用的影响，例如金融、地缘政治和政治风险。