To appraise the “real-world” implementation of the risk principle, this study examined the predictive validity of a Risk-Need-Responsivity assessment in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service. Reconviction rates at 24 months follow-up in a cohort of 2,442 offenders were used to assess calibration and discrimination indices. Results indicated acceptable predictive accuracy (AUC = .68–.74), with scope for improvement among young adult offenders. The tool's utility was supported foremost by its ability to screen out low-risk offenders, while over-prediction of recidivism among medium- and high-risk offenders calls for more comprehensive assessment to inform the effective planning of rehabilitative service intensity.

为了评估风险原则的“真实世界”实施情况，本研究检验了瑞典监狱和缓刑服务机构风险-需求-反应评估的预测有效性。在 2,442 名罪犯的队列中，24 个月随访时的再定罪率被用来评估校准和歧视指数。结果表明可以接受的预测准确性（AUC = .68–.74），在年轻成年罪犯中还有改进的余地。该工具的实用性首先得到其筛选低风险罪犯的能力的支持，而对中高风险罪犯累犯的过度预测则需要更全面的评估，以便为有效规划康复服务强度提供信息。