In orienting themselves to the future, people form expectations not only on what will happen but also on how they will feel about possible future occurrences. So far, such affective forecasting—the prediction of future feelings—has been studied mainly from a psychological perspective. This study aims to show the importance of a socio-communicative perspective for understanding the predictors, manifestations, and consequences of affective forecasting, especially when collective futures are at stake. Using the case study of the 2019–2021 Israeli elections and a combination of a 12-wave survey and 25 focus groups, we show how political affective forecasts are associated with socio-communicative factors, are used in social interactions, and have consequences for political polarization and participation. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for future research on affective forecasting in communication studies.

中文翻译：

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选举中的情感预测：社会交流视角

在使自己面向未来的过程中，人们不仅对将要发生的事情形成预期，而且对他们对未来可能发生的事情的感受形成预期。到目前为止，这种情感预测——对未来感受的预测——主要是从心理学的角度来研究的。本研究旨在展示社会交流视角对于理解情感预测的预测因素、表现形式和后果的重要性，尤其是在集体未来受到威胁的情况下。我们使用 2019-2021 年以色列选举的案例研究以及 12 波调查和 25 个焦点小组的组合，展示了政治情感预测如何与社会交流因素相关联，如何用于社会互动，并对政治产生影响极化和参与。