The rise of nationalist and populist movements throughout the world has led to concerns about the future of the liberal international economic order. Central to these worries is the belief that nationalist and populist publics and their leaders will reject open trade, which has been a cornerstone of the global order. Yet despite these fears, very little empirical research has been conducted on the links between either nationalism or populism and trade policy. In this paper, we argue that nationalism and populism are likely to discourage trade liberalization in democratic states, but that these forces will have little influence on trade policy in non-democracies. To test this argument, we focus on state involvement in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Based on a variety of tests, we find considerable support for our argument. Democracies with nationalist or populist governments are especially reluctant to join PTAs, but neither nationalism nor populism systematically influences whether non-democracies enter PTAs.

中文翻译：

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民族主义、民粹主义和贸易协定

世界范围内民族主义和民粹主义运动的兴起引发了对自由国际经济秩序未来的担忧。这些担忧的核心是相信民族主义和民粹主义公众及其领导人将拒绝开放贸易，而开放贸易一直是全球秩序的基石。然而，尽管存在这些担忧，但很少有关于民族主义或民粹主义与贸易政策之间联系的实证研究。在本文中，我们认为民族主义和民粹主义可能会阻碍民主国家的贸易自由化，但这些力量对非民主国家的贸易政策几乎没有影响。为了检验这一论点，我们关注国家参与优惠贸易协定 (PTA)。基于各种测试，我们为我们的论点找到了相当大的支持。