It is widely accepted that climate change will cause sea level rise and increase the coastal flood hazard in many places. However, climate change also has significant implications for hurricane climatology. While the effect of climate change on hurricane frequency is inconclusive, there is a general consensus among climate scientists that hurricane intensity will increase over the coming decades. A number of studies indicate that hurricane size and translation speed may intensify with climate change as well. Each of these properties influences storm surge generation and propagation, and thus has significant implications for the coastal flood hazard, particularly in the densely populated northeast region of the U.S. As coastal populations grow, increasing the resilience of the built environment will become an increasingly necessary priority. Local, detailed, and comprehensive flood hazard assessment is a central aspect of such efforts. In this work, we integrate global climate data, statistical-deterministic hurricane modeling, physics-based numerical storm surge modeling, and extreme value analysis methods to comprehensively assess the present day and end of century flood hazard due to hurricanes for several coastal communities along the U.S. North Atlantic coastline. We find that by the end of the century, annual exceedance probabilities of the 100-year flood may increase by factors as great as 7 due to sea level rise, and on average projected changes to tropical cyclone climatology cause these probabilities to double. For truly effective long-term resilience efforts, coastal engineers, planners, and other stakeholders must account for climate change impacts to both sea level and tropical storm climatology.

人们普遍认为，气候变化将导致海平面上升，增加许多地方的沿海洪水灾害。然而，气候变化对飓风气候学也有重大影响。虽然气候变化对飓风频率的影响尚无定论，但气候科学家普遍认为飓风强度将在未来几十年增加。许多研究表明，飓风的规模和传播速度也可能随着气候变化而加剧。这些特性中的每一个都会影响风暴潮的产生和传播，因此对沿海洪水灾害具有重大影响，特别是在美国人口稠密的东北地区随着沿海人口的增长，提高建筑环境的复原力将成为越来越必要的优先事项. 当地的，详细而全面的洪水灾害评估是此类工作的一个核心方面。在这项工作中，我们整合了全球气候数据、统计确定性飓风模型、基于物理的数值风暴潮模型和极值分析方法，以综合评估沿线几个沿海社区当前和世纪末的洪水灾害。美国北大西洋海岸线。我们发现，到本世纪末，由于海平面上升，100 年洪水的年度超标概率可能会增加 7 倍，而热带气旋气候的平均预测变化会导致这些概率翻倍。对于真正有效的长期复原力工作，海岸工程师、规划师、