Overprecision is the excessive certainty in the accuracy of one’s judgment. This article proposes a new theory to explain it. The theory holds that overprecision in judgment results from neglect of all the ways in which one could be wrong. When there are many ways to be wrong, it can be difficult to consider them all. Overprecision is the result of being wrong and not knowing it. This explanation can account for why question formats have such a dramatic influence on the degree of overprecision people report. It also explains the ubiquity of overprecision not only among people but also among artificially intelligent agents.

中文翻译：

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过度精确是思维系统的一个特性。

过度精确是指对自己判断的准确性过于确定。本文提出了一个新的理论来解释它。该理论认为，判断过于精确是由于忽视了所有可能出错的方式。当错误的方式有很多种时，可能很难将它们全部考虑在内。过度精确是错误且不自知的结果。这个解释可以解释为什么问题格式对人们报告的过度精确程度有如此巨大的影响。它还解释了不仅在人类中而且在人工智能代理中普遍存在的过度精确现象。