Russian Meteorology and Hydrology ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-05-04 , DOI: 10.3103/s1068373922010010 I. A. Kulikova 1 , E. N. Kruglova 1 , V. M. Khan 1, 2
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Abstract
The problem of predictability of atmospheric processes such as blocking in the Northern Hemisphere on intraseasonal timescales is considered using the operational version of the semi-Lagrangian atmosphere model for long-rahge forecasting (SL-AV) of the Hydrometcenter of Russia, as well as the U.K. Met Office coupled atmosphere–ocean model (UKMO) and the reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). It is shown that beyond the first forecast week, the quality of deterministic forecasts drops sharply, and the forecast error grows rapidly. The use of probabilistic formulations makes it possible to extend the time interval of the skillful forecast from a week to a month. The dependence of the forecast quality on initial data of the model, as well as on spatiotemporal scales of blocking systems, is demonstrated by the case study (the summer of 2010 in the European part of Russia). Some specific features of the verification of forecasts of rare events, such as blocking, are noted. The results can be used for preparing long-range meteoroloical forecasts on intraseasonal timescales.
中文翻译：
使用现代水动力模型评估阻塞反气旋的实际可预测性
摘要
使用俄罗斯 Hydrometcenter 的半拉格朗日大气长期预报 (SL-AV) 模式的业务版本，以及英国气象局大气-海洋耦合模型 (UKMO) 和欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ERA5) 的再分析。结果表明，在第一个预测周之后，确定性预测的质量急剧下降，预测误差迅速增长。使用概率公式可以将熟练预测的时间间隔从一周延长到一个月。预测质量对模型初始数据以及阻塞系统时空尺度的依赖性，案例研究（2010 年夏天在俄罗斯的欧洲部分）证明了这一点。注意到验证罕见事件预测的一些特定特征，例如阻塞。结果可用于准备季节内时间尺度的长期气象预报。
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