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A Case-Crossover Study of the Impact of the Modifying Industrial Operations Protocol on the Frequency of Industrial Forestry-Caused Wildland Fires in Ontario, Canada
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-04-29 , DOI: 10.1007/s13253-022-00497-z
Kevin Granville 1 , Douglas G. Woolford 1 , C. B. Dean 2 , Colin B. McFayden 3
Affiliation  

Wildland fire prevention and mitigation is of mutual interest to both government and the forest industry. In 1989, the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry introduced the Woods Modification Guidelines that provided rules on how forestry operations should be modified based on local fire danger conditions. Those guidelines were replaced by the Modifying Industrial Operations Protocol (MIOP) in 2008. One objective of MIOP is to allow forestry operations to be done safely for as long as possible as the fire danger increases. We investigate the impacts of these sets of regulations on the frequency of industrial forestry-caused (IDF) wildland fires in the province of Ontario, Canada. Data from 1976 to 2019 are analyzed. A case-crossover study finds no evidence to suggest that MIOP’s greater flexibility in operating hours has increased the probability of IDF fire occurrences. This result indicates that MIOP’s regulations have had the desired effect of allowing longer working hours on days with heightened fire risk without adding to the seasonal wildland fire load.



中文翻译:

修改工业运营协议对加拿大安大略省工业林业引起的荒地火灾频率影响的案例交叉研究

荒地防火和减灾对政府和林业行业都有共同的利益。1989 年,安大略省自然资源和林业部引入了《森林改造指南》,规定了如何根据当地火灾危险情况修改林业作业的规则。这些指导方针在 2008 年被修改工业运营协议 (MIOP) 所取代。MIOP 的一个目标是在火灾危险增加时尽可能长时间地安全地进行林业作业。我们调查了这些法规对加拿大安大略省工业林业引起的 (IDF) 荒地火灾频率的影响。分析了 1976 年至 2019 年的数据。一项案例交叉研究发现没有证据表明 MIOP 在工作时间方面的更大灵活性增加了 IDF 火灾发生的可能性。这一结果表明,MIOP 的规定已经产生了预期的效果,即允许在火灾风险较高的日子延长工作时间,而不会增加季节性的荒地火灾负荷。

更新日期:2022-05-02
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