Sudan's democratic transition following the ousting of Omar Al-Bashir in 2019 was from the start an uphill struggle. Three decades of Islamist military dictatorship, multiple internal conflicts, widespread poverty, and depleted state coffers all weighed heavily on the political authorities tasked with forging a new democratic system. Yet, there was hope in Sudan, at least for a time, particularly after the United Nations helped broker the historic 2020 Sudanese peace agreement between a coalition of rebel groups and the interim authorities. Then, between September and October 2021, Sudan's transition unraveled. Why did Sudan reach this point? And can its transition still be salvaged? This essay reviews the latest developments and argues that the October 2021 military coup was not a surprise but instead the foreseeable culmination of a power grab long in the making. The essay also lays out the steps that could improve the likelihood of a democratic transition in Sudan and offers a cautionary note about the many challenges ahead.

中文翻译：

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苏丹的民主过渡能否挽救？

2019 年奥马尔·巴希尔下台后，苏丹的民主过渡从一开始就是一场艰苦的斗争。三年的伊斯兰军事独裁、多重内部冲突、普遍的贫困和耗尽的国库都沉重地压在了负责建立新民主制度的政治当局身上。然而，至少在一段时间内，苏丹仍有希望，特别是在联合国帮助促成了反叛组织联盟与临时当局之间历史性的 2020 年苏丹和平协议之后。然后，在 2021 年 9 月至 2021 年 10 月期间，苏丹的过渡瓦解。苏丹为何会走到这一步？它的过渡还能挽救吗？本文回顾了最新发展，并认为 2021 年 10 月的军事政变并不令人意外，而是长期酝酿中的权力攫取的可预见高潮。这篇文章还列出了可以提高苏丹民主过渡可能性的步骤，并对未来的许多挑战提出警告。