This study assesses harvest levels compatible with the reference levels for forest management sinks (FRLs) within the EU, the UK, and Norway (EU + UK + N). A detailed examination of the harvest data and the National Forest Accounting Plans of the countries within this region reveals that the countries have calculated their FRLs based on different modelling approaches and that the quality of data used has not always been sound. The process of preparing the FRLs has most likely contributed to improvements in this regard, but obtaining comparable and reliable data on the harvest levels compatible to the FRLs still represents a challenge. We estimated that within EU + UK + N, the aggregated FRL-compatible harvests would be 597 Mm³/a over bark for the first compliance period 2021–2025 and 619 Mm³/a over bark for the second compliance period 2026–2030. Comparing the FRL-compatible harvest levels to future harvests projected by linear trend and by global forest sector modelling, we found that some of the countries seemed likely to reach their FRLs without needing to deviate from their market-driven harvests, whereas the region as a whole would not reach its FRLs without measures taken to decrease the harvests. If harvests would be reduced from the market driven levels, it would cause harvest leakage to the other countries. We found that for each 1 m³ of roundwood harvest reduction in EU + UK + N in year 2030, roundwood harvest would increase by some 0.64 m³ in rest of the world, giving a leakage rate of 64%. In addition to harvest leakage, there would also be some leakage of forest industry production. The leakage effect strongly weakens the effectiveness and cost efficiency of reducing harvests in the EU as a policy means for climate change mitigation.

本研究评估了与欧盟、英国和挪威 (EU + UK + N) 内森林管理汇 (FRL) 参考水平兼容的采伐水平。对该地区各国的采伐数据和国家森林核算计划的详细检查表明，这些国家根据不同的建模方法计算了它们的 FRL，并且使用的数据质量并不总是可靠的。准备 FRL 的过程很可能促成了这方面的改进，但获得与 FRL 兼容的收获水平的可比较和可靠的数据仍然是一个挑战。我们估计，在 EU + UK + N 内，在 2021-2025 年的第一个合规期内，与 FRL 兼容的总收获量将为 597 Mm ³ /a 超过树皮和 619 Mm ³/a 在 2026 年至 2030 年的第二个合规期超过树皮。将符合 FRL 的收获水平与线性趋势和全球森林部门模型预测的未来收获进行比较，我们发现一些国家似乎有可能在无需偏离其市场驱动的收获的情况下达到其 FRL，而该地区作为如果不采取措施减少收成，整体将无法达到其 FRL。如果收成从市场驱动的水平下降，将导致收成泄漏到其他国家。我们发现，2030 年欧盟 + 英国 + N 圆木采伐量每减少 1 m ³，圆木采伐量将增加约 0.64 m ³在世界其他地区，泄漏率为 64%。除了采伐泄漏外，还会出现一些林业生产的泄漏。泄漏效应大大削弱了欧盟将减产作为减缓气候变化的政策手段的有效性和成本效率。