Proponents of distributive justice with regard to energy hold that every household has the right to affordable access to energy. However, when passively participating in clean energy reform policies, households, and especially low-income households, are often forced to use energy beyond the scope of affordability, resulting in distributive injustice. However, research on the quantitative estimation of injustice in energy distribution is still rare. In this paper, an evaluation model of energy vulnerability and distributive justice is established through the “reverse deduction method,” and the change value of energy vulnerability before and after energy reform is used to calculate the loss value of distributive justice, which is used as the basis for energy policy evaluation. Taking the policy of replacing coal with natural gas for rural heating in Gaocheng District, Hebei Province, China as a case study, the value of lost distributive justice is calculated. The results show that 34.51% of households experienced distributive injustice after the energy reform, while 19.34% of households improved their energy vulnerability and achieved energy justice through energy subsidy policies. However, 46.15% of households were able to adapt to the energy reform independently without subsidies, which indicates a waste of resources in the energy subsidy policy. The policy implication of these results is that differentiated energy subsidy policies should be implemented according to household energy vulnerability, so as to maximize the policy benefits on the premise of ensuring justice in household energy distribution and minimizing injustice. The empirical study proves that the method of assessing injustice in energy distribution based on the “reverse deduction method” of energy vulnerability is feasible and a new attempt.

能源分配正义的支持者认为，每个家庭都有权获得负担得起的能源。然而，在被动参与清洁能源改革政策时，家庭，尤其是低收入家庭，往往被迫使用超出承受能力范围的能源，造成分配不公。然而，关于能量分布不公平的定量估计的研究仍然很少。本文通过“逆推法”建立能源脆弱性与分配公平的评价模型，利用能源改革前后能源脆弱性的变化值计算分配公平的损失值，作为能源政策评估的基础。以河北省藁城区农村取暖天然气代煤政策为例，计算了失去分配正义的价值。结果表明，34.51%的家庭在能源改革后经历了分配不公，而19.34%的家庭通过能源补贴政策改善了能源脆弱性，实现了能源公平。然而，46.15%的家庭在没有补贴的情况下能够独立适应能源改革，这表明能源补贴政策存在资源浪费。这些结果的政策含义是，应根据家庭能源脆弱性实施差异化的能源补贴政策，从而在保证家庭用电分配公平、尽量减少不公平的前提下，最大限度地发挥政策效益。实证研究证明，基于能源脆弱性“逆推法”的能源分配不公评价方法是可行的，是一种新的尝试。