Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Ahead of Print.
Growth is a key component of population dynamics and, thus, fisheries management, yet drivers of its variations are often poorly understood. Using individual data collected over 80 years, we explored how environmental drivers affect growth in a major population of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). The results confirm that intrinsic factors (age and maturation) determine growth to a large degree but also that extrinsic factors such as temperature have some influence. While the role of intrinsic factors was independent of time series length, the importance of extrinsic drivers varies strongly with the analysed time period. It remains unclear whether this is caused by data inconsistencies back in time, spurious correlations appearing in shorter time series, shifts in population dynamics, or dynamic interactions between variables that cannot be determined with current data. Generally, environmental effects on growth became less clear and relevant with increasing time series length. What drives variation in growth may therefore change over time, potentially due to impacts such as fishing or climate change. It also underlines that seemingly clear correlations can break down or change their sign over time; hence, caution is advised when interpreting results from time series of 20–40 years.

中文翻译：

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鲱鱼增长的环境驱动因素以及感知如何随着时间序列长度而变化

加拿大渔业和水生科学杂志，印刷前。
增长是种群动态的关键组成部分，因此也是渔业管理的关键组成部分，但对其变化的驱动因素往往知之甚少。利用 80 多年来收集的个人数据，我们探索了环境驱动因素如何影响大西洋鲱鱼 (Clupea harengus) 主要种群的增长。结果证实，内在因素（年龄和成熟度）在很大程度上决定了生长，但温度等外在因素也有一定影响。虽然内在因素的作用与时间序列长度无关，但外在驱动因素的重要性随分析的时间段而变化很大。目前尚不清楚这是否是由于时间上的数据不一致、较短时间序列中出现的虚假相关性、人口动态的变化、或无法用当前数据确定的变量之间的动态相互作用。一般来说，随着时间序列长度的增加，环境对生长的影响变得不那么明显和相关。因此，驱动增长变化的因素可能会随着时间的推移而发生变化，这可能是由于渔业或气候变化等影响。它还强调了看似清晰的相关性可能会随着时间的推移而分解或改变它们的符号；因此，在解释 20-40 年时间序列的结果时要谨慎。它还强调了看似清晰的相关性可能会随着时间的推移而分解或改变它们的符号；因此，在解释 20-40 年时间序列的结果时要谨慎。它还强调了看似清晰的相关性可能会随着时间的推移而分解或改变它们的符号；因此，在解释 20-40 年时间序列的结果时要谨慎。