当前位置: X-MOL 学术Weather Clim. Extrem. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Estimating the impact of urbanization on non-stationary models of extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan region
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2022-04-27 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100445
Rui Yao 1, 2, 3 , Shuliang Zhang 1, 2, 3 , Peng Sun 4 , Qiang Dai 1, 2, 3 , Quntao Yang 1, 2, 3
Affiliation  

Rapid urbanization has significantly increased the proportion of impervious surfaces in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA), hence quantifying its impact on extreme precipitation events is essential for waterlogging control and urban planning. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns of extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) based on a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model are analyzed in urban, suburban, and rural stations. Additionally, the degree of change of the recurrence levels are calculated to evaluate the effect of the urbanization process on EPIs in these stations. The results indicated that (1) Except for CWD, other EPIs show an increasing trend and EPIs with significantly increasing trend distributed in the downwind direction of the YRD. The percentages of significantly positive trends in EPIs, accounted for more than 85%, are mainly in the urban and suburban stations. (2) The optimal non-stationary GEV model with urbanization factor is predominately distributed in the highly urbanized areas. Urbanization factor has a significant impact on short-term, high-intensity precipitation and PRCPTOT in urban areas. (3) While the proportion of urban impervious areas in the urban area increased from 0.11 in 1985 to 0.63 in 2016, the effect of urbanization on EPIs changes from negative to positive and R95p, R25, R50, PRCPTOT in urban are much higher than those in rural after 2000. Urbanization significantly affects the recurrence levels of Rx5day in the rural, urban, and suburban stations, which increased by 27%, 29%, and 29%, respectively. The degree of change in the recurrence level in the suburban and urban areas is greater than that in the rural areas.



中文翻译:

估计城市化对长三角都会区极端降水事件非平稳模式的影响

快速城市化显着增加了长三角城市群(YRDUA)中不透水表面的比例,因此量化其对极端降水事件的影响对于内涝控制和城市规划至关重要。基于非平稳广义极值(GEV)模型的极端降水指数(EPI)时空演化模式在城市、郊区和农村站点进行了分析。此外,还计算了重现水平的变化程度,以评估城市化进程对这些站点EPI的影响。结果表明:(1)除CWD外,其他EPI均呈上升趋势,且呈显着上升趋势的EPI分布在长三角下风向。EPI 中显着积极趋势的百分比,占85%以上,主要分布在市区和郊区车站。(2)具有城市化因子的最优非平稳GEV模型主要分布在高度城市化地区。城市化因素对城市地区的短期高强度降水和PRCPTOT有显着影响。(3)城镇不透水面积占市区比重从1985年的0.11增加到2016年的0.63,城镇化对EPI的影响由负转正,城市R95p、R25、R50、PRCPTOT远高于那些2000 年以后的农村。城市化显着影响农村、城市和郊区车站的 Rx5day 复发水平,分别增加了 27%、29% 和 29%。

更新日期:2022-04-27
down
wechat
bug