Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pre-game win probability. The proposed methods are compared to existing methods, showing the new methods perform better for both estimation and prediction. The utility is illustrated via an application to the 2016 NCAA Division 1 Championship game.

中文翻译：

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大学篮球比赛中主队获胜概率的贝叶斯估计

提出了两种用于估计和预测比赛中主队获胜概率的新贝叶斯方法。第一种方法有一个先验，它根据领先差异和经过的时间进行调整。第二个是第一个的调整版本，其中调整是贝叶斯估计量与时间加权的赛前获胜概率的线性组合。将所提出的方法与现有方法进行了比较，表明新方法在估计和预测方面表现更好。该实用程序通过 2016 年 NCAA Division 1 冠军赛的应用程序进行说明。