The objective of this paper is to propose a methodology to estimate nationwide traffic safety impacts of automated vehicle technologies using multi-agent traffic simulations. The influence of three levels of driver trust in the automation system (appropriate, over trust, distrust) is considered in the simulation and takes different transition modes of control between the driver and the system into account. The nationwide estimation of crashes is obtained by projecting results of the simulations using traffic data for three different and representative municipalities. Results indicated that Automated Driving Systems and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems significantly reduced the number of casualties and fatalities compared to manual driving. Simulation results in consideration of the influence of driver trust also found that this reduction may be negatively affected by over- and under-trust parameters. However, even with the introduction of these parameters, the reduction rate was still significant compared to manual driving. The proposed methodology using multi-agent traffic simulations may thus address concerns surrounding the deployment of automated driving systems which is a feature not found in conventional simulations, provide useful insight for interested parties to develop research and policy making strategies that accelerate traffic safety improvements, and to support social acceptance efforts.

中文翻译：

---

使用多智能体交通模拟对全国范围内的自动驾驶系统对交通安全的影响进行评估


本文的目的是提出一种使用多智能体交通模拟来估计自动驾驶汽车技术对全国交通安全影响的方法。仿真中考虑了驾驶员对自动化系统信任的三个级别（适当、过度信任、不信任）的影响，并考虑了驾驶员与系统之间不同的控制转换模式。全国范围内的碰撞事故估计是通过使用三个不同的代表性城市的交通数据来预测模拟结果而获得的。结果表明，与手动驾驶相比，自动驾驶系统和高级驾驶辅助系统显着减少了伤亡人数。考虑驾驶员信任影响的仿真结果还发现，过度信任和信任不足参数可能会对这种降低产生负面影响。然而，即使引入了这些参数，相比手动驾驶，降低幅度仍然很显着。因此，所提出的使用多智能体交通模拟的方法可以解决围绕自动驾驶系统部署的问题，这是传统模拟中没有的功能，为感兴趣的各方制定加速交通安全改进的研究和政策制定策略提供有用的见解，以及支持社会接受努力。