The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of probability is best understood by dividing this concept into two different types of probability, namely physical probability and analogical probability. Loosely speaking, a physical probability is a probability that applies to the outcomes of an experiment that have been judged as being equally likely on the basis of physical symmetry. Physical probabilities are arguably in some sense 'objective' and possess all the standard properties of the concept of probability. On the other hand, an analogical probability is defined by making an analogy between the uncertainty surrounding an event of interest and the uncertainty surrounding an event that has a physical probability. Analogical probabilities are undeniably subjective probabilities and are not obliged to have all the standard mathematical properties possessed by physical probabilities, e.g. they may not have the property of additivity or obey the standard definition of conditional probability. Nevertheless, analogical probabilities have extra properties, which are not possessed by physical probabilities, that assist in their direct elicitation, general derivation, comparison and justification. More specifically, these properties facilitate the application of analogical probability to real-world problems that can not be adequately resolved by using only physical probability, e.g. probabilistic inference about hypotheses on the basis of observed data. Careful definitions are given of the concepts that are introduced and, where appropriate, examples of the application of these concepts are presented for additional clarity.

中文翻译：

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物理、主观和类比概率

本文的目的是表明通过将概率概念分为两​​种不同类型的概率，即物理概率和类比概率，可以更好地理解概率的概念。粗略地说，物理概率是一种适用于实验结果的概率，该实验结果根据物理对称性被判断为同样可能。物理概率在某种意义上可以说是“客观的”，并且具有概率概念的所有标准属性。另一方面，类比概率是通过在围绕感兴趣事件的不确定性和围绕具有物理概率的事件的不确定性之间进行类比来定义的。类比概率是不可否认的主观概率，并且不必具有物理概率所具有的所有标准数学属性，例如它们可能不具有可加性或服从条件概率的标准定义。然而，类比概率具有物理概率所不具备的额外属性，有助于它们的直接引出、一般推导、比较和证明。更具体地说，这些特性有助于将类比概率应用于仅使用物理概率无法充分解决的现实问题，例如基于观察数据的假设的概率推断。对引入的概念给出了仔细的定义，并在适当的情况下，