While the real-world has warmed in one unique way, the available data, which is spatio-temporally incomplete and contains biases of unknown nature and timing, means this quantity can only ever be estimated. Craigmile and Guttorp (2022) propose an approach that optimally combines the range of existing products to gain a refined estimate. Implicit in this or, indeed, any similar approach, are assumptions about the available estimates representing both an unbiased and representative draw from the population of potential plausible estimates that could have been created. There are well-founded reasons to doubt that this is the case. An alternative approach, used in the IPCC report, is to employ much simpler approaches which, in particular, hedge against underestimation of the true uncertainty in the evolution of global surface temperatures, and thus serve to future-proof current estimates against subsequent dataset innovations arising from future improvements in our understanding.

中文翻译：

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关于“全球气温综合估计”的讨论

虽然现实世界以一种独特的方式变暖，但可用数据在时空上不完整，并且包含未知性质和时间的偏差，这意味着这个数量只能被估计。Craigmile 和 Guttorp (2022) 提出了一种方法，可以最佳地结合现有产品的范围以获得精确的估计。在这种方法或实际上任何类似方法中，隐含的是关于可用估计的假设，这些假设代表了从可能已经创建的潜在合理估计总体中的无偏见和代表性抽取。有充分的理由怀疑情况是否如此。IPCC 报告中使用的另一种方法是采用更简单的方法，特别是避免低估全球地表温度演变的真正不确定性，