The circular economy (CE) has gained prominence in recent years in government and business policies, as well as academic research. Yet, its alleged wholesomeness is increasingly questioned and few quantitative studies include both the outer (e.g. recycling) and inner circles (e.g. reduce or reuse), respectively the ex-ante least and most efficient CE strategies. By developing a supply chain equilibrium model, based on general equilibrium theory, this paper presents a modelling framework where a product-service system is introduced as a circular alternative to conventional products. Through generalised prices that cover inner and outer circle variables, targeted economic and fiscal policy measures affect overall price levels and, by consequence, operational levels of the supply chain. The rationale behind this approach relies on combining material and economic efficiency by integrating material/product life cycles with market interactions. To illustrate its performance, the model examines the rollout of a reusable plastic bottle initiative in Belgium. The results show that if circular products are perceived as substitutes for conventional products, well-targeted policies can reduce material use substantially. Furthermore, coordinating circular policies along the supply chain can improve their outcomes. However, the absence of CE data impedes model development and risks undermining the validity of the results.

近年来，循环经济 (CE) 在政府和商业政策以及学术研究中获得了重视。然而，其所谓的健康性越来越受到质疑，很少有定量研究同时包括外部（例如回收）和内部循环（例如减少或再利用），分别是事前最低和最有效的 CE 策略。通过开发供应链均衡模型，基于一般均衡理论，本文提出了一个建模框架，其中引入了产品服务系统作为传统产品的循环替代品。通过涵盖内圈和外圈变量的广义价格，有针对性的经济和财政政策措施会影响整体价格水平，从而影响供应链的运营水平。这种方法背后的基本原理是通过将材料/产品生命周期与市场互动相结合来结合材料和经济效率。为了说明其性能，该模型考察了比利时推出的可重复使用塑料瓶计划。结果表明，如果循环产品被视为传统产品的替代品，那么有针对性的政策可以大大减少材料使用。此外，沿着供应链协调循环政策可以改善其结果。然而，缺乏 CE 数据会阻碍模型开发，并有可能破坏结果的有效性。