Scenario analysis (SA) provides a useful tool to envision the future conditions of urban ecosystem services (UES), but our understanding of how SA has been used in UES research is rather limited. Thus, this study was intended to (1) review scenario analysis-based urban ecosystem services (SA-UES) studies; and (2) synthesize the main findings that can help improving urban planning and management. By adopting a systematic review procedure, we identified and analyzed 103 relevant articles from Web of Science. We found that SA-UES research comprises primarily studies geared towards urban landscape planning/management (Type I) and green infrastructure (GI) planning/management (Type II), with the former exploring the impacts of multiple land use/cover types on UES and the latter evaluating the potential of GI to provide UES. About 93% of the examined cities were located in Asia, Americas, and Europe, with Type I research accounting for 80%, 46%, and 41% of the total number of publications in each continent, respectively. SA-UES research pursued mainly city-scale, spatially-explicit, and exploratory scenarios, with regulating services mostly considered. The most often considered scenario drivers were urban land demand and natural land protection in Type I research, and GI quantity and spatial location in Type II research. UES scenarios were mainly represented quantitively using five types of approaches: adapting existing scenarios, GIS-based mapping, land use/cover change model, tree growth model, and optimization method. UES were most often evaluated by adopting biophysical approaches (64%), followed by monetary approaches (22%). SA-UES studies have shown that the same drivers may have contrasting impacts on UES in different contexts. Thus, sustaining UES requires context-specific solutions, which can be facilitated by the use of SA. To move forward, SA-UES research should further promote the holistic landscape approach that integrates both green and non-green infrastructures, with more emphasis on climate change, policy intervention and stakeholders-participatory scenarios, and cultural services.

情景分析 (SA) 为设想城市生态系统服务 (UES) 的未来状况提供了有用的工具，但我们对 SA 如何用于 UES 研究的理解相当有限。因此，本研究旨在 (1) 回顾基于情景分析的城市生态系统服务 (SA-UES) 研究；(2) 综合有助于改进城市规划和管理的主要发现。通过采用系统审查程序，我们从 Web of Science 中识别并分析了 103 篇相关文章。我们发现 SA-UES 研究主要包括针对城市景观规划/管理（I 型）和绿色基础设施（GI）规划/管理（II 型）的研究，前者探索多种土地利用/覆盖类型对 UES 的影响后者评估 GI 提供 UES 的潜力。大约 93% 的被调查城市位于亚洲、美洲和欧洲，I 类研究分别占各大洲出版物总数的 80%、46% 和 41%。SA-UES 研究主要追求城市规模、空间明确和探索性场景，主要考虑调节服务。最常考虑的情景驱动因素是 I 类研究中的城市土地需求和自然土地保护，以及 II 类研究中的 GI 数量和空间位置。UES 情景主要使用五种方法进行定量表示：适应现有情景、基于 GIS 的制图、土地利用/覆盖变化模型、树木生长模型和优化方法。UES 最常通过采用生物物理方法（64%）进行评估，其次是货币方法（22%）。SA-UES 研究表明，相同的驱动因素在不同情况下可能对 UES 产生不同的影响。因此，维持 UES 需要特定于上下文的解决方案，这可以通过使用 SA 来促进。为了向前发展，SA-UES 研究应进一步促进整合绿色和非绿色基础设施的整体景观方法，更加强调气候变化、政策干预和利益相关者参与的情景以及文化服务。