A key indicator of climate change is the greater frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes across much of the globe. In fact, several studies have already documented increased regional precipitation extremes over recent decades. Future projections of these changes, however, vary widely across climate models. Using two generations of models, here we demonstrate an emergent relationship between the future increased occurrence of precipitation extremes aggregated over the globe and the observable change in their frequency over recent decades. This relationship is robust in constraining frequency changes in precipitation extremes in two separate ensembles and under two future emissions pathways (reducing intermodel spread by 20–40%). Moreover, this relationship is also apparent when the analysis is limited to near-global land regions. These constraints suggest that historical global precipitation extremes will occur roughly 32 ± 8% more often than at present by 2100 under a medium-emissions pathway (and 55 ± 13% more often under high emissions).

气候变化的一个关键指标是全球大部分地区极端降水的频率和强度更高。事实上，一些研究已经记录了近几十年来区域降水极端事件的增加。然而，这些变化的未来预测因气候模型而异。使用两代模型，我们在这里展示了未来全球范围内聚集的极端降水事件的增加与近几十年来其频率的可观察到的变化之间的新兴关系。这种关系在约束两个独立集合和两个未来排放路径下的极端降水频率变化方面是稳健的（将模式间扩散减少 20-40%）。此外，当分析仅限于接近全球的陆地区域时，这种关系也很明显。