Much research shows academic self-concept and achievement are reciprocally related over time, based on traditional longitudinal data cross-lag-panel models (CLPM) supporting a reciprocal effects model (REM). However, recent research has challenged CLPM's appropriateness, arguing that CLPMs with random intercepts (RI-CLPMs) provide a more robust (within-person) perspective and better control for unmeasured covariates. However, there is much confusion in educational-psychology research concerning appropriate research questions and interpretations of RI-CLPMs and CLPMs. To clarify this confusion, we juxtapose CLPMs and RI-CLPMs relating math self-concept (MSCs), school grades, and achievement tests over the five years of compulsory secondary schooling (N = 3,425). We extend basic models to evaluate: directional ordering among three rather than only two constructs; longitudinal invariance over time (multiple school years) and multiple groups (school tracks); lag-2 paths between non-adjacent waves; and covariates (gender, primary-school math and verbal achievement). Across all basic and extended RI-CLPMs and CLPMs, there was consistent support for the REM bidirectional-ordering hypothesis that self-concept and achievement are each a cause and an effect of the other. Consistent with the logic of these models, extensions of the basic models had more effect on CLPMs, but the direction and statistical significance of cross-lagged paths were largely unaffected for both RI-CLPMs and CLPMs. This substantive-methodological synergy has important implications for theory, methodology, and policy/practice; we support the importance of MSC as a predictor of subsequent achievement and demonstrate a more robust methodological framework for evaluating longitudinal-panel models.

许多研究表明，基于支持互惠效应模型 (REM) 的传统纵向数据跨滞后面板模型 (CLPM)，学术自我概念和成就随着时间的推移相互关联。然而，最近的研究对 CLPM 的适用性提出了挑战，认为具有随机截距的 CLPM (RI-CLPM) 为未测量的协变量提供了更稳健的（个人内部）视角和更好的控制。然而，在教育心理学研究中，关于适当的研究问题和对 RI-CLPM 和 CLPM 的解释存在很多混淆。为了澄清这种混淆，我们将 CLPMs 和 RI-CLPMs 与数学自我概念（MSCs）、学校成绩和五年义务中学教育的成绩测试并列（N = 3,425)。我们扩展基本模型来评估：三个而不是两个结构之间的定向排序；随着时间的推移（多个学年）和多个组（学校轨道）的纵向不变性；非相邻波之间的滞后 2 路径；和协变量（性别、小学数学和语言成绩）。在所有基本和扩展的 RI-CLPM 和 CLPM 中，都一致支持 REM 双向排序假设，即自我概念和成就互为因果。与这些模型的逻辑一致，基本模型的扩展对 CLPM 的影响更大，但交叉滞后路径的方向和统计显着性对 RI-CLPM 和 CLPM 基本上不受影响。这种实质性-方法论的协同作用对理论、方法论和政策/实践具有重要意义；