ABSTRACT

The daily observations of the cosmic ray intensity carried out by the Athens Neutron Monitoring Station in Greece during the period 1 January 2010 to 14 January 2022 are analysed for the study of the observed extreme events. The high values of this parameter were found to obey the Gutenberg-Richter scaling, which has already been identified in several meteorological parameters. Based on this finding a new nowcasting method has been developed herewith for extreme cosmic rays’ events that may cause interference to telecommunications and problems with transportation and water supply, as well as several disasters. For the development of this nowcasting model, the innovative domain of ‘natural time’ has been employed. Moreover, using the data provided by the Cosmic Rays Database, a power–law relation was found that connects the cosmic ray flux and the particle total energy corresponding to a future cosmic ray event with high intensity. This model will make a major contribution to the further development of ways to prevent, prepare for and deal with potential damages following extreme cosmic rays’ events.

摘要

分析希腊雅典中子监测站在 2010 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 1 月 14 日期间对宇宙射线强度的每日观测，以研究观测到的极端事件。发现该参数的高值遵循古腾堡-里希特标度，该标度已在多个气象参数中确定。基于这一发现，针对极端宇宙射线事件开发了一种新的临近预报方法，这些事件可能会干扰电信、交通和供水问题以及一些灾难。为了开发这种临近预报模型，采用了“自然时间”这一创新领域。此外，利用宇宙射线数据库提供的数据，发现了一种幂律关系，它将宇宙射线通量和对应于未来高强度宇宙射线事件的粒子总能量联系起来。该模型将为进一步开发预防、准备和处理极端宇宙射线事件后的潜在损害的方法做出重大贡献。