A new approach to modelling epidemics of brown rot caused by Monilinia spp. in Ebro Valley peach orchards has been developed. This compartmental model was subdivided according to the phenological stages in which the disease can develop (blossom, immature fruit, and ripe fruit). Information host susceptibility, primary and secondary inoculum sources and latent infections in immature fruit was taken into account. The compartmental model is described by a system of differential equations, and is simple enough to allow an analytical study of the main epidemiological factors that determine the rate of disease progress during a single growing season. The proposed model fits well to the epidemic pattern of brown rot observed in north-eastern Spain. The transmission of the disease as a non-linear term implied that small changes in the infection rate had a large effect on the development of the disease. The model has confirmed the usefulness of removing mummies (infected fruit that remains in the crop during winter) from the field to reduce the final incidence of the disease. In addition, all control measures that reduce the rate of secondary infection in ripe fruit, either through the use of more resistant varieties or the use of fungicides, are effective in reducing brown rot incidence. The proposed epidemic model is flexible and allows to add complexities to the system and evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies.

一种模拟由莫尼利尼亚引起的褐腐病流行的新方法spp. 在埃布罗河谷桃园已开发。该隔室模型根据疾病可能发展的物候阶段（开花、未成熟果实和成熟果实）进行细分。信息宿主易感性，初级和次级接种源和未成熟果实的潜伏感染被考虑在内。隔室模型由微分方程系统描述，并且足够简单，可以对决定单个生长季节疾病进展速度的主要流行病学因素进行分析研究。所提出的模型非常适合在西班牙东北部观察到的褐腐病流行模式。疾病的传播作为一个非线性术语意味着感染率的微小变化对疾病的发展有很大的影响。该模型已经证实了将木乃伊（冬季留在作物中的受感染果实）从田间移除以减少疾病的最终发病率的有用性。此外，所有降低成熟果实继发感染率的控制措施，无论是通过使用抗性更强的品种还是使用杀菌剂，都可以有效降低褐腐病的发病率。所提出的流行病模型是灵活的，可以增加系统的复杂性并评估不同控制策略的有效性。无论是通过使用抗性更强的品种还是使用杀菌剂，都可以有效降低褐腐病的发生率。所提出的流行病模型是灵活的，可以增加系统的复杂性并评估不同控制策略的有效性。无论是通过使用抗性更强的品种还是使用杀菌剂，都可以有效降低褐腐病的发生率。所提出的流行病模型是灵活的，可以增加系统的复杂性并评估不同控制策略的有效性。