Since the early 1990s, increasing attention is being paid to the impact of life course transitions on criminal behavior. However, individuals’ life courses do not evolve in a vacuum but rather in the broad context of societal characteristics and developments. In this paper, we analyze whether there is an effect of macroeconomic circumstances on individuals’ criminal careers and whether this effect is conditional on marital status and parenthood. We employ micro-level data from a Dutch large-scale longitudinal study and enrich these with macro-level data. Using logistic panel data models for criminal behavior, we distinguish three types of effects: the macro-effect of experiencing declining economic times, the micro-effect of family composition and the interaction effect, indicating whether the effect of economic decline is differentiated by marital status and parenthood. We quantify economic decline either as an increase in the unemployment rate (objective and backward-looking measure) or as a decrease in consumer confidence (subjective and forward-looking). First, we find that an increase in the unemployment rate has no effect on criminal careers, but a decrease in the consumer confidence is associated with an increase in individual-level crime. Next, we confirm earlier results that marriage has a negative effect on crime, while parenthood has no effect. Finally, our results indicate that the detrimental effect of decreasing consumer confidence on criminal behavior is nullified for married individuals.

自 1990 年代初以来，人们越来越关注生命历程转变对犯罪行为的影响。然而，个人的生命历程并不是在真空中发展的，而是在社会特征和发展的广泛背景下发展的。在本文中，我们分析了宏观经济环境是否对个人的犯罪生涯产生影响，以及这种影响是否取决于婚姻状况和父母身份。我们使用来自荷兰大规模纵向研究的微观数据，并用宏观数据丰富这些数据。利用对犯罪行为的逻辑面板数据模型，我们区分了三种效应：经历经济衰退的宏观效应、家庭构成的微观效应和交互效应，表明经济衰退的影响是否因婚姻状况和父母身份而有所不同。我们将经济衰退量化为失业率的上升（客观和后向衡量）或消费者信心的下降（主观和前瞻性）。首先，我们发现失业率的增加对犯罪生涯没有影响，但消费者信心的下降与个人犯罪的增加有关。接下来，我们确认了早先的结果，即婚姻对犯罪有负面影响，而为人父母则没有影响。最后，我们的结果表明，消费者信心下降对犯罪行为的不利影响对已婚人士无效。我们将经济衰退量化为失业率的上升（客观和后向衡量）或消费者信心的下降（主观和前瞻性）。首先，我们发现失业率的增加对犯罪生涯没有影响，但消费者信心的下降与个人犯罪的增加有关。接下来，我们确认了早先的结果，即婚姻对犯罪有负面影响，而为人父母则没有影响。最后，我们的结果表明，消费者信心下降对犯罪行为的不利影响对已婚人士无效。我们将经济衰退量化为失业率的上升（客观和后向衡量）或消费者信心的下降（主观和前瞻性）。首先，我们发现失业率的增加对犯罪生涯没有影响，但消费者信心的下降与个人犯罪的增加有关。接下来，我们确认了早先的结果，即婚姻对犯罪有负面影响，而为人父母则没有影响。最后，我们的结果表明，消费者信心下降对犯罪行为的不利影响对已婚人士无效。但消费者信心的下降与个人犯罪的增加有关。接下来，我们确认了早先的结果，即婚姻对犯罪有负面影响，而为人父母则没有影响。最后，我们的结果表明，消费者信心下降对犯罪行为的不利影响对已婚人士无效。但消费者信心的下降与个人犯罪的增加有关。接下来，我们确认了早先的结果，即婚姻对犯罪有负面影响，而为人父母则没有影响。最后，我们的结果表明，消费者信心下降对犯罪行为的不利影响对已婚人士无效。