A lack of winterization of power system infrastructure resulted in substantial rolling blackouts in Texas in 2021, but debate about the cost of winterization continues. Here we assess if incentives for winterization on the energy-only market are sufficient. We combine power demand estimates with estimates of power plant outages to derive power deficits and scarcity prices. Expected profits from winterization of a large share of existing capacity are positive. However, investment risk is high due to the low frequency of freeze events, potentially explaining the under-investment, as do the high discount rates and uncertainty about power generation failure under cold temperatures. As the social cost of power deficits is one to two orders of magnitude higher than the winterization cost, regulatory enforcement of winterization is welfare enhancing. Current legislation can be improved by emphasizing the winterization of gas power plants and infrastructure.

电力系统基础设施缺乏冬季化导致 2021 年德克萨斯州出现大量轮流停电，但关于冬季化成本的争论仍在继续。在这里，我们评估在纯能源市场上的过冬激励措施是否足够。我们将电力需求估计与电厂停电估计相结合，得出电力短缺和稀缺价格。大部分现有产能过冬的预期利润是积极的。然而，由于冻结事件的频率低，投资风险很高，这可能解释了投资不足，高贴现率和低温下发电故障的不确定性也是如此。由于电力不足的社会成本比过冬成本高出一到两个数量级，过冬的监管执法可以提高福利。