In response to well-documented harms inflicted on irregular migrants attempting to travel from West Africa to Europe, various actors have scaled up information interventions to counter misinformation by smuggling networks and facilitate safe migration decisions. Many interventions include information on the potential dangers involved in migration. However, there is a striking lack of empirical evidence assessing a key assumption of campaign effectiveness, that is the relationship between risk perceptions and the decision to migrate irregularly. This study contributes an empirical account based on two independently collected surveys in Senegal and Guinea. Consistent with rational choice theories on migration decisions under uncertainty, the results suggest that higher risk perceptions are consistently and strongly associated with reduced intentions to migrate irregularly. Yet, the explanatory power of risk perceptions depends on context and is generally less important than structural and socio-economic factors.

中文翻译：

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危险的旅程——塞内加尔和几内亚潜在非正常移民的风险和决策

为应对试图从西非前往欧洲的非正规移民所遭受的有据可查的伤害，各行为者已扩大信息干预力度，以打击走私网络的错误信息并促进安全的移民决策。许多干预措施包括有关移民中潜在危险的信息。然而，显着缺乏实证证据来评估运动有效性的一个关键假设，即风险认知与不定期迁移决定之间的关系。本研究基于在塞内加尔和几内亚进行的两项独立收集的调查提供了实证说明。与不确定性下迁移决策的理性选择理论一致，结果表明，较高的风险认知与非正规移徙意愿的降低始终密切相关。然而，风险认知的解释力取决于背景，通常不如结构和社会经济因素重要。