ABSTRACT

The retailing industry in the UK is experiencing unprecedented structural change. The impact on retailers has often dominated headlines, along with the impacts on local services and economies, but with little attention given to the implications for property owners and practitioners. Exploring and understanding the responsiveness of landlords, and their behaviours, is essential to understanding the adaptiveness of a retailing system. This study employs semi-structured interviews to examine the short- and long-term changes in the retail market and the actions of landlords in response. The findings span the period prior to and during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and reveal that fundamental changes have occurred to establish tenant covenant norms and the traditional retail leasing model. The paper explores these changes, including a shift in tenant risk, reposition of the leasing model in favour of tenants, generally, and greater application of turnover rents. The pressing challenge for current valuation practitioners, therefore, is to incorporate these fundamental changes within the market into the pricing of retail assets. Significant progress in this area to date, as explored in the paper, has been limited although greater application of discounted cashflow techniques is set to be encouraged by the RICS.

摘要

英国的零售业正在经历前所未有的结构性变革。对零售商的影​​响以及对当地服务和经济的影响经常成为头条新闻，但很少有人关注对业主和从业者的影响。探索和理解房东的反应及其行为对于理解零售系统的适应性至关重要。本研究采用半结构式访谈来检验零售市场的短期和长期变化以及房东的应对措施。调查结果跨越了 2020 年 Covid-19 大流行的第一年之前和期间，并揭示了建立租户契约规范和传统零售租赁模式已经发生了根本性变化。本文探讨了这些变化，包括租户风险的转移、租赁模式的重新定位以有利于租户，以及更广泛地应用周转租金。因此，当前估值从业者面临的紧迫挑战是将市场中的这些基本变化纳入零售资产的定价。尽管 RICS 鼓励更多地应用贴现现金流技术，但正如本文所探讨的那样，迄今为止在这一领域取得的重大进展是有限的。