This article studies inflation dynamics and the output–inflation trade-off in small open economies. We estimate a series of VAR models for a set of six Asian emerging market economies, in which we identify a battery of domestic and global shocks using sign restrictions. We find that global shocks explain large parts of inflation and output dynamics. A series of counterfactuals support these findings and suggest that the role of monetary policy is limited. We estimate reduced-form Phillips curve regressions based on alternative decompositions of output into global and domestic components. For most countries, we find a positive and significant correlation between inflation and the fraction of GDP driven by domestic shocks only. While including the output component driven by oil prices seems to ‘flatten’ the Phillips curve, though the effect is not significant, the component driven by global demand shocks ‘steepens’ the inflation–output nexus.

中文翻译：

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全球和国内冲击对通胀动态的作用：来自亚洲的证据*

本文研究了小型开放经济体的通胀动态和产出-通胀权衡。我们估计了一组六个亚洲新兴市场经济体的一系列 VAR 模型，其中我们使用符号限制确定了一系列国内和全球冲击。我们发现全球冲击可以解释大部分通货膨胀和产出动态。一系列反事实支持这些发现，并表明货币政策的作用是有限的。我们基于将产出分解为全球和国内成分的替代方式来估计简化形式的菲利普斯曲线回归。对于大多数国家，我们发现通货膨胀与仅由国内冲击驱动的 GDP 比例之间存在显着的正相关关系。虽然包括由油价驱动的产出部分似乎会使菲利普斯曲线“变平”，