This study offers a localized test of the bifurcation hypothesis, which suggests that jurisdictions adopting decarceral policies for lower-level offenses often do so at the expense of increased punitiveness toward more serious offenses. Relying on fresh data from Florida, we examine how adopting a new diversion program targeting low-level traffic offenses affects overall prosecutorial diversion decisions. The new program is associated with an estimated 8% decrease in the odds of diversion to existing programs. Analyses of marginal effects suggest that the new program reduced diversion for more serious offenses by up to 43%. Although having a prior record disadvantaged defendants overall, defendants with more prior arrests experienced less of a diversion penalty after the new program; but defendants with more prior prison sentences were treated even more punitively after program implementation.

中文翻译：

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检控分流假说的检验

这项研究提供了对分叉假设的本地化检验，该假设表明，对较低级别的犯罪采取分散监管政策的司法管辖区通常会以增加对更严重犯罪的惩罚为代价。依靠来自佛罗里达州的最新数据，我们研究了采用针对低级别交通违法行为的新分流计划如何影响整体起诉分流决定。新计划与转移到现有计划的几率估计降低 8% 相关。对边际效应的分析表明，新计划将更严重的犯罪行为的转移减少了 43%。尽管之前的记录总体上使被告处于不利地位，但在新计划之后，之前被捕较多的被告受到的转移处罚较少；