Intra-African conflicts during the collapse of the kingdom of Oyo from 1817 to 1836 resulted in the enslavement of an estimated 121,000 people who were then transported to coastal ports via complex trade networks and loaded onto slave ships destined for the Americas. Historians have a good record of where these people went across the Atlantic, but little is known about where individuals were from or enslaved within Africa. In this work, we develop a novel statistical modelling strategy to describe the enslavement of people given documented violent conflict, the transport of enslaved peoples from their location of capture to their port of departure, and—given an enslaved individual's location of departure—that person's probability of origin. We combine spatial prediction of conflict density via kriging with a Markov decision process characterising intra-African transportation. The results of this model can be visualised using an interactive web application to plot—for the first time—estimated conditional probabilities of historical origins during the African diaspora. Understanding the likely origins within Africa of enslaved people may have ramifications for the history of the Atlantic world, whereby the ocean connects, rather than disconnects, Africa, the Americas, and Europe.

中文翻译：

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估计非洲起源的条件概率的建模策略：奥约帝国的崩溃和跨大西洋奴隶贸易，1817-1836

1817 年至 1836 年奥约王国崩溃期间的非洲内部冲突导致约 121,000 人被奴役，他们随后通过复杂的贸易网络​​被运送到沿海港口，并被装载到运往美洲的奴隶船上。历史学家对这些人穿越大西洋的地点有很好的记录，但人们对这些人来自哪里或被奴役的地方知之甚少非洲。在这项工作中，我们开发了一种新的统计建模策略来描述在记录暴力冲突的情况下对人的奴役，被奴役的人从他们的俘虏地点到他们的出发港的运输，以及——给定一个被奴役的人的出发地——那个人的起源的概率。我们将通过克里金法对冲突密度的空间预测与表征非洲内部交通的马尔可夫决策过程相结合。该模型的结果可以使用交互式 Web 应用程序进行可视化，从而首次绘制出非洲侨民期间历史起源的估计条件概率。了解被奴役的人在非洲的可能起源可能会对大西洋世界的历史产生影响，其中海洋连接，而不是断开连接，非洲、美洲和欧洲。