ABSTRACT

In extant scholarship on intergroup conflict, perceived threat is portrayed as either positively linked with conflict occurrence or neutralizable by individuals’ internal psychological inhibitors, such as feelings about a past experience or encounter or pre-existing dovish disposition. Yet, conflict avoidance is possible even in the absence of such internal guardrails against destructive responses to threat. This comparative qualitative study of two similarly structured communities in Jos, Nigeria’s ethnic conflict hotbed, reveals that while perceived threat may create aggressive dispositions, as established in extant scholarship on intergroup conflict, conflict avoidance remains possible in the absence of both internal inhibitors and external coercion. The compared Jos communities, Angwan Doki and Dadin Kowa, are similar in terms of widespread fear of the outgroup and significant willingness to respond aggressively to threat. Yet, conflict avoidance was possible in the latter because its community leaders both wittingly and unwittingly confronted the underlying threat that drove people’s violent dispositions. Past variability analyses omit this dynamic of external malleability of perceived threat outcomes – aggression and violence. Generally, the findings show that low-tech threat management interventions are more effective at mitigating intergroup conflict in weak states than interventions that seek to forcefully suppress the threat.

摘要

在现有的关于群体间冲突的学术研究中，感知威胁被描述为与冲突发生正相关，或者可以被个人的内部心理抑制因素中和，例如对过去经历或遭遇的感觉或先前存在的鸽派倾向。然而，即使没有这样的内部护栏来防止对威胁的破坏性反应，冲突避免也是可能的。这项对尼日利亚种族冲突温床乔斯的两个结构相似的社区进行的比较定性研究表明，尽管感知到的威胁可能会产生攻击性倾向，正如现有的关于群体间冲突的学术所证实的那样，在没有内部抑制因素和外部胁迫的情况下，冲突避免仍然可能. 比较的乔斯社区，Angwan Doki 和 Dadin Kowa，在对外部群体的广泛恐惧和对威胁做出积极反应的强烈意愿方面是相似的。然而，在后者中避免冲突是可能的，因为它的社区领导人有意或无意地面对了驱使人们暴力倾向的潜在威胁。过去的可变性分析忽略了感知威胁结果的这种外部延展性动态——侵略和暴力。总体而言，研究结果表明，与试图强行压制威胁的干预相比，低技术威胁管理干预在缓解弱国群体间冲突方面更有效。在后者中避免冲突是可能的，因为它的社区领导人有意或无意地面对了驱使人们暴力倾向的潜在威胁。过去的可变性分析忽略了感知威胁结果的这种外部延展性动态——侵略和暴力。总体而言，研究结果表明，与试图强行压制威胁的干预相比，低技术威胁管理干预在缓解弱国群体间冲突方面更有效。在后者中避免冲突是可能的，因为它的社区领导人有意或无意地面对了驱使人们暴力倾向的潜在威胁。过去的可变性分析忽略了感知威胁结果的这种外部延展性动态——侵略和暴力。总体而言，研究结果表明，与试图强行压制威胁的干预相比，低技术威胁管理干预在缓解弱国群体间冲突方面更有效。