European infrastructure managers (IMs) create annual timetables for trains that will run during a year. Freight trains in Sweden often deviate from this by being added , canceled , delayed or early , resulting in increased costs for IMs and railway undertakings (RUs). We investigate the frequency of and causes for these deviations, using one year of operational data for 48,000 trains, and 15 stakeholder interviews. We find that about 20% of freight trains are added once the timetable has been created, and that cancelations occur for about 35% of freight trains, mostly at the RUs’ initiative. Delays are common: some 40% of departures, 30% of runtimes, and 20% of dwell times are delayed. Running early is even more common: 80% are ready to depart early, and 60% do so, while 40% of runtimes and 75% of dwell times are shorter than scheduled. We find links and feedback loops between the root causes for these deviations and suggest that IMs reserve more of the capacity that is needed for freight trains and instead distribute it throughout the year. This could lead to more appropriate, attractive, and reliable timetables for freight trains, whilst greatly reducing the amount of planning effort.

中文翻译：

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货运列车如何以及为何偏离时间表：来自瑞典的证据

欧洲基础设施经理 (IM) 为将在一年内运行的列车制定年度时间表。瑞典的货运列车经常偏离这一点添加 ，取消 ，延迟或早期，导致 IM 和铁路企业 (RU) 的成本增加。我们使用 48,000 辆列车的一年运营数据和 15 名利益相关者访谈来调查这些偏差的频率和原因。我们发现大约 20% 的货运列车是在创建时间表后添加，并且大约 35% 的货运列车被取消，主要是在 RU 的倡议下。延误很常见：大约 40% 的出发、30% 的运行时间和 20% 的停留时间被延误。跑步提早更常见：80% 准备提早出发，60% 这样做，而 40% 的运行时间和 75% 的停留时间比计划的要短。我们发现这些偏差的根本原因之间存在联系和反馈循环，并建议 IM 保留更多货运列车所需的运力，而是全年分配。这可以为货运列车制定更合适、更有吸引力和更可靠的时刻表，同时大大减少规划工作量。