ABSTRACT

South Africa has been the worst hit by Covid-19 on the African continent and is experiencing devastating consequences. The goal of this study is to look at the role of underlying socio-economic factors and the quality of government policy responses in mitigating the impact of Covid-19 in South Africa against the backdrop of a multi-decade HIV epidemic. In the first phase of our analysis, we look at South Africa’s HIV experience. This analysis, using national level yearly data, shows that government capability plays an important role in mitigating the socio-economic consequences of the HIV epidemic. In the second phase of our analysis, we test whether a similar pattern, regarding the role of government capacity in containing the impact of Covid-19, holds true at the subnational level. The results show that rather than the level of income and wealth being the most decisive factors, the ability of the government to mobilize and influence the population’s behavior is key to mitigating the impact of Covid-19 pandemic. With the arrival of several vaccines around the globe, these findings regarding the centrality of government capacity at the national as well as the subnational level have important implications for addressing the Covid-19 pandemic and future disasters.

摘要

南非是非洲大陆受 Covid-19 打击最严重的地区，正在经历毁灭性的后果。本研究的目的是研究潜在的社会经济因素和政府政策响应的质量在减轻 Covid-19 在南非的影响方面的作用，背景是数十年的 HIV 流行。在我们分析的第一阶段，我们着眼于南非的艾滋病毒经验。这项使用国家级年度数据的分析表明，政府能力在减轻艾滋病毒流行的社会经济后果方面发挥着重要作用。在我们分析的第二阶段，我们测试了关于政府能力在遏制 Covid-19 影响方面的作用的类似模式是否适用于地方层面。结果表明，不是收入和财富水平是最决定性的因素，而是政府动员和影响民众行为的能力是减轻 Covid-19 大流行影响的关键。随着全球几种疫苗的问世，这些关于政府能力在国家和地方层面的中心地位的研究结果对于应对 Covid-19 大流行和未来的灾难具有重要意义。