“Ending impunity” is often heralded as the key mechanism for stopping rape in war. Yet, little systematic evidence or analyses exist of the relationship between impunity (or lack thereof) and sexual violence. We argue that amnesties signal impunity and permissiveness for sexual violence, which can perpetuate and instigate more sexual violence by rebels. Trials, on the other hand, signal a nonzero probability of punishment, which could have a deterrent effect. Studying all intrastate armed conflicts in the period 1989–2011, we find in line with the impunity signal that amnesties are associated with sexual violence by rebels, but we are not able to demonstrate a deterrent effect of trials. While the study prevents us from conclusively saying that ending impunity would be an effective policy tool to stop sexual violence in war, the association between amnesties and subsequent sexual violence is a testament to the perils of impunity.

中文翻译：

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与冲突有关的性暴力和有罪不罚的危险

“结束有罪不罚”通常被认为是制止战争中强奸的关键机制。然而，关于有罪不罚（或缺乏）与性暴力之间的关系，几乎没有系统的证据或分析。我们认为，大赦标志着对性暴力的有罪不罚和放任，这可能使叛乱分子长期存在并煽动更多的性暴力。另一方面，审判表明惩罚的概率非零，这可能会产生威慑作用。研究 1989 年至 2011 年期间的所有州内武装冲突，我们发现大赦与叛乱分子的性暴力有关，这与有罪不罚的信号一致，但我们无法证明审判的威慑作用。虽然这项研究使我们无法得出结论说，结束有罪不罚将成为制止战争中性暴力的有效政策工具，大赦与随后的性暴力之间的联系证明了有罪不罚的危险。