Backward-in-time Lagrangian dispersion models can efficiently reconstruct drifters trajectories by linking known arrival positions to potential sources. This approach was applied to the deep water rose shrimp (Parapenaeus longirostris) in the Strait of Sicily (central Mediterranean Sea). The objective was to identify the potential spawning areas of the larvae that settle in the known nursery grounds of the northern sector of the Strait of Sicily, thus quantifying the extent of the potential contribution to recruitment from the surrounding regions. Numerical simulations were performed over 11 years (2005–2015) and for two different periods (spring/summer and autumn/winter) corresponding to the species' spawning peaks in the region. The persistence over time of potential spawning areas was identified through a Hotspot analysis of the backward trajectories end-points, filtered to meet a suitable depth range for spawners. The results confirmed the expected downstream connectivity between spawning and nursery grounds along the Sicilian–Maltese shelf and, notably, indicated that these spawning grounds contribute to the high productivity and resilience of deep water rose shrimp fisheries in the northern Strait of Sicily more than the spawning grounds in surrounding regions. A minor and time-varying contribution is due to potential spawning areas identified on the African shelf. These results are important to adequately define the geographical scale for the assessment and management of this important fishery resource in the Strait of Sicily. In particular, the assumption of a single stock that does not consider the spatial structure of the population should be revised for the purpose of fisheries management.

中文翻译：

---

新兵从哪里来？中地中海深水玫瑰虾的后向拉格朗日模拟

通过将已知到达位置与潜在来源联系起来，时间倒退的拉格朗日扩散模型可以有效地重建漂流者的轨迹。该方法应用于深水玫瑰虾（Parapenaeus longirostris）在西西里海峡（地中海中部）。目的是确定定居在西西里海峡北部已知苗圃地的幼虫的潜在产卵区，从而量化对周边地区招募的潜在贡献程度。数值模拟在 11 年（2005-2015 年）和两个不同时期（春季/夏季和秋季/冬季）对应于该物种在该地区的产卵高峰进行。通过对后向轨迹端点的热点分析，确定潜在产卵区域随时间推移的持久性，过滤以满足产卵者的合适深度范围。结果证实了西西里 - 马耳他大陆架沿线产卵场和育苗场之间的预期下游连通性，特别是，表明这些产卵场比周边地区的产卵场更有助于西西里海峡北部深水玫瑰虾渔业的高生产力和恢复力。一个较小且随时间变化的贡献是由于在非洲大陆架上确定的潜在产卵区。这些结果对于充分确定评估和管理西西里海峡这一重要渔业资源的地理范围非常重要。特别是，为了渔业管理的目的，应修改不考虑种群空间结构的单一种群假设。一个较小且随时间变化的贡献是由于在非洲大陆架上确定的潜在产卵区。这些结果对于充分确定评估和管理西西里海峡这一重要渔业资源的地理范围非常重要。特别是，为了渔业管理的目的，应修改不考虑种群空间结构的单一种群假设。一个较小且随时间变化的贡献是由于在非洲大陆架上确定的潜在产卵区。这些结果对于充分确定评估和管理西西里海峡这一重要渔业资源的地理范围非常重要。特别是，为了渔业管理的目的，应修改不考虑种群空间结构的单一种群假设。