ABSTRACT

This paper motivates and sketches a set of nuclear-use cases involving conflict on the Korean peninsula. The cases reflect a wide range of ways that nuclear weapons might be brandished or used in a Korean crisis. We identify possible cases by using two different lenses: a “logical” or taxonomic lens and a decisionmaking lens that asks how an actual national leader might decide to use nuclear weapons first. We then select cases from the space of possibilities to reflect that range usefully. The use cases consider mistakes, unintended escalation, coercive threats, limited nuclear use to reinforce threats, defensive operations, and offensive operations. They also consider the potential role of fear, desperation, responsibility, grandiosity, indomitability, and other human emotions. Some use cases are far more plausible than others at present, but estimating likelihoods is a dubious activity. The real challenge is to avoid circumstances where the use cases would become more likely.

摘要

本文提出并概述了一系列涉及朝鲜半岛冲突的核使用案例。这些案例反映了在朝鲜危机中可能挥舞或使用核武器的多种方式。我们确定可能通过使用两个不同的镜头来处理案例：“逻辑”或分类镜头和决策镜头，询问实际的国家领导人如何决定首先使用核武器。然后，我们从可能性空间中选择案例以有效地反映该范围。用例考虑了错误、意外升级、胁迫性威胁、有限的核使用以加强威胁、防御性行动和进攻性行动。他们还考虑了恐惧、绝望、责任、自大、不屈不挠和其他人类情感的潜在作用。目前，一些用例比其他用例更合理，但估计可能性是一项可疑的活动。真正的挑战是避免使用案例变得更有可能的情况。