We study the labour market transition pathways driven by the coal phase-out in Poland between 1990 and 2050. We apply the concept of branching points to describe the coal transition in the context of structural and labour supply changes and educational upgrading. We show that in the 1990s and 2000s, job opportunities for miners were scarce, as the trajectories of all of these trends deteriorated their labour market prospects. As these trends have reversed in the 2010s, the future employment outlook of the coal phase-out in Poland is more favourable than it was in the past. We find that the employment structures of mining subregions and mines are homogenous, which enables regional approaches to manage the transition. Decarbonisation will lead to a surplus of Polish hard coal mining workers from 2030 on, yet the projected shortages of workers in other sectors will create opportunities for reallocation.

我们研究了 1990 年至 2050 年间波兰煤炭淘汰驱动的劳动力市场转型路径。我们应用分支点的概念来描述结构和劳动力供应变化以及教育升级背景下的煤炭转型。我们表明，在 1990 年代和 2000 年代，矿工的工作机会稀缺，因为所有这些趋势的轨迹都恶化了他们的劳动力市场前景。由于这些趋势在 2010 年代发生逆转，波兰煤炭淘汰的未来就业前景比过去更加有利。我们发现，采矿次区域和矿山的就业结构是同质的，这使得区域方法能够管理过渡。从 2030 年起，脱碳将导致波兰硬煤开采工人过剩，