Following Carter and Mérel (2016), we explore the export benefits of reforming supply management (SM) in Canada's dairy sector. A trade model with ten regions and five dairy product categories is developed and used to examine the potential benefits of opening international markets to Canadian dairy products. In addition to a baseline, three scenarios are compared—one with SM in place but with Canada able to export freely. Two other scenarios assume SM is eliminated and there is complete free trade, but with high- and low-cost structures. Findings indicate that, in the high-cost scenario, domestic consumers gain from lower prices as the domestic supply and exports fall compared to the status quo, but producers are less well off. However, under a low domestic cost structure, Canada becomes a major exporter of milk, with both producers and consumers gaining from free trade. This scenario assumes that domestic producers take advantage of economies of scale, enabling them to compete in international markets. Appropriate policies will be required to reform the quota regime, while minimizing the harm done to dairy farmers.

中文翻译：

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改革加拿大的乳制品供应管理计划及其对国际贸易的影响

继 Carter 和 Mérel（2016 年）之后，我们探讨了改革加拿大乳制品行业供应管理 (SM) 的出口效益。开发了一个包含十个地区和五个乳制品类别的贸易模型，并用于检查向加拿大乳制品开放国际市场的潜在好处。除了基线之外，还比较了三种情景——一种是 SM 到位，但加拿大能够自由出口。其他两种情况假设 SM 被消除并且存在完全的自由贸易，但具有高成本和低成本结构。研究结果表明，在高成本情景下，由于国内供应和出口与现状相比下降，国内消费者从价格下跌中受益，但生产者的富裕程度较低。然而，在低国内成本结构下，加拿大成为牛奶的主要出口国，生产者和消费者都从自由贸易中获益。这种情况假设国内生产商利用规模经济，使他们能够在国际市场上竞争。将需要适当的政策来改革配额制度，同时尽量减少对奶农的伤害。