ABSTRACT

Police-recorded crime data are prone to measurement error, affecting our understanding of the nature of crime. Research has responded to this problem using data from surveys and emergency services. These data sources are not error-free, and data from different sources are not always easily comparable. This study compares violent crime data recorded by police, ambulance services, two surveys and computer simulations in Islington, London. Different data sources show remarkably different results. However, crime estimates become more similar, but still show different distributions, when crime rates are calculated using workday population as the denominator and log-transformed. Normalising crime rates by workday population controls for the fact that some data sources reflect offences’ location while others refer to victims’ residence, and log-transforming rates mitigates the biasing effect associated with some multiplicative forms of measurement error. Comparing multiple data sources allows for more accurate descriptions of the prevalence and distribution of crime.

摘要

警方记录的犯罪数据容易出现测量误差，影响我们对犯罪性质的理解。研究使用来自调查和紧急服务的数据来解决这个问题。这些数据源并非没有错误，来自不同来源的数据并不总是很容易比较。本研究比较了伦敦伊斯灵顿警方、救护车服务、两项调查和计算机模拟记录的暴力犯罪数据。不同的数据源显示出截然不同的结果。然而，当犯罪率使用工作日人口作为分母并进行对数转换来计算时，犯罪估计值变得更加相似，但仍显示出不同的分布。通过工作日人口控制将犯罪率标准化，因为一些数据源反映了犯罪地点，而另一些数据源则反映了受害者的住所，和对数转换率减轻了与某些乘法形式的测量误差相关的偏差效应。比较多个数据源可以更准确地描述犯罪的流行和分布。