Strong historical, cultural, linguistic, and religious affinities have bound Iran and Afghanistan within the greater Middle East region. With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Iran is likely to face the exacerbation of existing nontraditional security challenges and the emergence of new threats. Iran continues to deal with drug trafficking, an influx of refugees and economic migrants, and terrorism caused partly by more than four decades of war in Afghanistan. Although Iranian authorities have cheered the United States (US) pullout and expressed cautious optimism about the Taliban, Tehran's choice of policy toward Afghanistan and its new rulers remains to be decided. Iran is likely to continue a policy of engagement with the Taliban unless the government in Kabul realigns with Tehran's adversaries and poses security threats to Iran. In the latter situation, Iran, resorting to proxy sponsorship, is likely to model its Afghanistan policy on its Iraq policy.

中文翻译：

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塔利班统治下的伊朗非传统安全挑战

强大的历史、文化、语言和宗教亲缘关系将伊朗和阿富汗束缚在大中东地区。随着美国从阿富汗撤军和2021年8月塔利班接管，伊朗可能面临现有非传统安全挑战的加剧和新威胁的出现。伊朗继续应对贩毒、难民和经济移民涌入，以及部分由阿富汗四十多年战争造成的恐怖主义。尽管伊朗当局为美国撤军而欢呼，并对塔利班表示谨慎乐观，但德黑兰对阿富汗及其新统治者的政策选择仍有待决定。除非喀布尔政府与德黑兰重新结盟，否则伊朗可能会继续与塔利班接触的政策 的对手，并对伊朗构成安全威胁。在后一种情况下，伊朗通过代理赞助，很可能将其阿富汗政策效仿其伊拉克政策。