White-nose syndrome (WNS) is caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans and has led to the deaths of millions of North American bats since it was first documented in New York in 2006. Since the first cases were recorded, WNS has spread rapidly across North America and is now confirmed or suspected in 40 US states and seven Canadian provinces. Often, the presence of P. destructans is detected in a cave or hibernaculum before signs of WNS manifest in the resident bat population, making presence of the fungus a more reliable assessment of potential epidemic spread than expansion of manifested WNS. An analysis of 43 cave internal climates across the state of Texas revealed a pattern of thermal suitability for P. destructans that correlated significantly with landscape (elevation, lithology) and external climate (mean surface temperature and precipitation). We generated a predictive model to assess the potential spread of P. destructans through Texas karst systems based on external features that correlate with suitable internal climates for fungal growth. Applications of this model to external climatic variables from 2019 showed seasonally varying patterns of suitability for fungal growth in select regions of Texas karst systems. Results from these surveys and models showed that internal climates of Texas caves are likely able to sustain the growth of P. destructans and could cause disease and resulting declines in Texas bats, and act as stepping-stones for the fungus, allowing it to travel southward into Mexican and Central American cave systems. The resulting work will inform researchers and natural resource managers of areas of significant concern to monitor for the spread of WNS.

中文翻译：

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模拟德克萨斯喀斯特地区对蝙蝠感染 Pseudogymnoascus destructans 的适用性

白鼻综合征 (WNS) 是由真菌 Pseudogymnoascus destructans 引起的，自 2006 年在纽约首次记录以来，已导致数百万北美蝙蝠死亡。自记录第一例病例以来，WNS 已迅速蔓延至北部美国，现在在美国 40 个州和加拿大 7 个省被确诊或怀疑。通常，在常驻蝙蝠种群中出现 WNS 迹象之前，在洞穴或冬眠中检测到 P. destructans 的存在，这使得真菌的存在比明显的 WNS 扩展更可靠地评估潜在的流行病传播。对德克萨斯州 43 个洞穴内部气候的分析揭示了一种与景观显着相关的 P. destructans 的热适宜性模式（海拔、岩性）和外部气候（平均地表温度和降水）。我们基于与适合真菌生长的内部气候相关的外部特征生成了一个预测模型，以评估 P. destructans 通过德克萨斯岩溶系统的潜在传播。将该模型应用于 2019 年的外部气候变量，显示了德克萨斯喀斯特系统特定地区真菌生长的季节性变化模式。这些调查和模型的结果表明，德克萨斯洞穴的内部气候可能能够维持 P. destructans 的生长，并可能导致疾病并导致德克萨斯蝙蝠的数量下降，并充当真菌的垫脚石，使其能够向南传播进入墨西哥和中美洲洞穴系统。