Does state weakness increase support for ethnic violence? This study proposes individuals who feel insecure due to state weakness are more likely to support interethnic violence conditional on exposure to chauvinist messaging. Support for interethnic violence is evaluated through a survey experiment in Southern Kyrgyzstan. The results show random assignment of chauvinist nationalist rhetoric only induces support for interethnic violence among respondents who trust informal non-state actors from their ethnic group to provide them security. The findings suggest state weakness leads individuals to view their ethnic group as an alternative provider of security and that when primed by chauvinist rhetoric, these individuals become more supportive of violence on their group’s behalf. A case study of the 2010 riots in the Southern Kyrgyz city of Osh illustrates how underlying support for violence may escalate to actual violence as a result of state breakdown, examining events in the months after the Kyrgyz state lost authority following the April 2010 revolution. Jointly, the survey findings and case study illustrate pathways for violence in ethnically divided low-capacity environments and potential drawbacks from protest-oriented revolutions.

国家软弱会增加对种族暴力的支持吗？这项研究表明，由于国家软弱而感到不安全的人更有可能支持以接触沙文主义信息为条件的种族间暴力。通过在吉尔吉斯斯坦南部进行的一项调查实验评估了对种族间暴力的支持情况。结果表明，随机分配沙文主义民族主义言论只会在相信来自其族裔群体的非正式非国家行为者为他们提供安全的受访者中引发对种族间暴力的支持。调查结果表明，国家弱点导致个人将他们的种族群体视为安全的替代提供者，并且当受到沙文主义言论的引导时，这些人会代表他们的群体更支持暴力。对 2010 年吉尔吉斯斯坦南部城市奥什的骚乱的案例研究表明，由于国家崩溃，对暴力的潜在支持可能会升级为实际暴力，考察了吉尔吉斯斯坦在 2010 年 4 月革命后失去权力后的几个月内发生的事件。调查结果和案例研究共同说明了种族分裂的低能力环境中的暴力途径以及以抗议为导向的革命的潜在弊端。