How do natural disasters affect the treatment of civilians by non-state actors? On the one hand, conflict literature argues that adverse shocks influence the strategic interplay between rebel groups and the government, potentially increasing the level of violence against civilians. On the other hand, sociological research on natural disasters argues that they increase social integration and cooperation and are thus expected to reduce the risk of violent behaviour. In this study, we contend that the dynamics of violence against civilians are different in the short term and long term after a disaster strikes. We argue that natural disasters lead to a decrease in violence against civilians perpetrated by rebel groups in the short run. However, over time this temporary improvement in social integration starts to decline, increasing the level of civilian victimization. To examine this potential temporal dynamic, we combine georeferenced information on one-sided violence (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data; ACLED) and data on disasters (Emergency Event Database; EM-DAT). Our results confirm the expected dynamic effects. This research has important implications for our understanding of how disasters can influence the relationship between civilians, rebel groups, and governments.

自然灾害如何影响非国家行为者对待平民的方式？一方面，冲突文献认为，不利冲击会影响反叛团体与政府之间的战略互动，可能会增加针对平民的暴力程度。另一方面，关于自然灾害的社会学研究认为，它们增加了社会融合与合作，因此有望降低暴力行为的风险。在这项研究中，我们认为针对平民的暴力行为在灾难发生后的短期和长期内是不同的。我们认为，自然灾害会在短期内减少反叛团体对平民的暴力行为。然而，随着时间的推移，社会融合的这种暂时改善开始下降，增加平民受害的程度。为了检查这种潜在的时间动态，我们结合了有关单方面暴力的地理参考信息（武装冲突地点和事件数据；ACLED）和灾害数据（紧急事件数据库；EM-DAT）。我们的结果证实了预期的动态效应。这项研究对我们理解灾害如何影响平民、反叛团体和政府之间的关系具有重要意义。