Scientific advice is increasingly used to inform policy. Often, experts are asked to give advice when stakes are high, time pressure is severe and uncertainty looms. In such environments, decisions may be guided by instincts and priors, rather than reason. Yet, the extent of these intuitive judgements is unknown. We use a database of fish stock assessments to detect and quantify the systematic tendency to put too much weight on previous information, known as anchoring, in scientific advice. By exploiting exogenous variation in procedures and possibilities to vary model assumptions, we find consistent evidence for intuitive judgement. We find that anchoring is strongest if model choices are flexible and the fish stock is in crisis, potentially increasing pressure and stakes. By providing advice that is biased towards previous results, the stock assessments may be more robust but may also give a false sense of security as more drastic changes may go undetected.

中文翻译：

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追溯专家对鱼类种群评估数据的直观判断

科学建议越来越多地用于为政策提供信息。通常，当风险很高、时间压力很大且不确定性迫在眉睫时，专家会被要求提供建议。在这样的环境中，决策可能会受到直觉和先验的指导，而不是理性。然而，这些直觉判断的范围是未知的。我们使用鱼类种群评估数据库来检测和量化科学建议中过度重视先前信息（称为锚定）的系统趋势。通过利用程序的外生变化和改变模型假设的可能性，我们找到了直观判断的一致证据。我们发现，如果模型选择灵活且鱼类种群处于危机中，则锚定效果最强，这可能会增加压力和风险。通过提供偏向于先前结果的建议，